Are we overlearning from 2016?

All the statistical evidence points to a Biden blowout, but we still treat this as Trump’s race to loose.

2016 traumatised the media ecosystem of liberal pundits. When they realised a populist had won power, and Dear Hillary had been rejected by the electorate, they spent the next four years denying it occurred and pointing the finger of blame squarely with either Vladmir Putin, a man who had nothing to do with Trump’s election, or Bernie Sanders, the man who warned the Democratic party about the perils of Trump. Oh and then of course, they chose another neoliberal Washington insider as their nominee.

The scary thing about 2016 is all the polls indicated, most Democrats (and even Republicans) believed, and even Trump himself allegedly thought, Hillary Clinton was certain to win election as the 45th President of the United States. It was a question of will it be a comfortable win or a landslide. The fatalistic inevitability of Clinton’s breach of the glass ceiling was a comfort blanket for people, until it wasn’t and facts intervened. Yes, Clinton was an awful candidate for the presidency. Yes, she became one of the most hated presidential nominees of all time. But still, every indicator showed people (rightfully) treating her as the lesser evil.

What are the odds a similar occurrence happens again? All the evidence shows a record shatteringly solid lead for Biden, and near certainty of his ascendance to the Presidency come January. We don’t act like this. We act like a Biden win would be an odds defying miracle, so disturbed by loss after unexpected loss for years, of the insurgence of rightwing populism, we can’t contemplate a Joe Biden winning the Presidency. It’s too obvious, where’s the crazy plot twist, defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. I’ll believe a Biden victory when I see it, and although I oppose almost everything Joe Biden and his politics stands for, passionately, I will breath a sigh of relief to see the back of the wanna-be despot Donald Trump.

I think it’s entirely plausible we’re massively overegging the risk of Trump prevailing; even this article drips with caution and tip toeing at even mentioning the fact Trump might not be in office next year. They do say lightning doesn’t strike twice, and we may be about to everything fall into place and Trump made a one term President. Only time will tell.