Biden has this locked, if it holds.
All the former Vice President needs to do is maintain his steady polling lead for a matter of days longer.
We are so tantalisingly close to removing Donald Trump from office. I don’t like Joe Biden, I disagree with him fundamentally on any issue you could name, and his career of neoliberal, hawkish politics has fuelled the very forces that brought Trumpism into the mainstream. However, this could be it, Donald Trump is on course to loose the election, that is as of right now factually correct.
Biden’s solid polling lead is record shattering; by most estimates he’s 8–11 points ahead nationally at all times. If that holds (national polling was 1 point off last time) then no matter the idiosyncrasies or inaccuracies of state polling, Biden wins the White House. That’s it, the nightmare’s over, and we can get back to supporting people who aren’t war mongering billionaire backed fiscal conservatives. The only danger is in the last 10 days or so, something blows this Trump defeat off course and the lead shrinks, seeing a repeat of 2016.
The first hurdle Biden has to make it through is the debate tonight. Trump will go hard with a different strategy to whatever the Biden camp expects, he’ll dominate the debate (and the ensuing news cycle) and he’ll do his level unhinged best to sow doubts in enough voters minds about A: the election’s credibility, and B: the candidacy of Joe Biden. These last minute desperate slurs may seem like straw grabs; but they could land a hit, particularly if Biden falters or looses his temper.
The second hurdle is if any “smoking gun” type last minute surprises about Mr Biden’s son Hunter’s business dealings are revealed. It feels improbable that anything will be enough; considering Trump can talk when it comes to using political office to enrich his family. But there’s every chance the Trump camp is sitting on something damning; Joe Biden’s record is a dismal one.
The third and final hurdle is if any sort of civil disruption occurs, tipping moderate white Republican voters towards the President’s coded “Law and Order” message. Either that or some kind of bizarre Fox News scoop on homicidal leftists that don’t exist could use fear to propel Trump-Pence on election day. Equally, intimidation or threats at the polls, so people just stay home.
This is so close, don’t get complacent, that big Biden lead means nothing if it isn't maintained until the end; and unless people actually get out and vote in the numbers predicted. No complacency. Vote vote vote.