Biden must hold steady on Iran.

The President-Elect mustn’t bow to pressure by Israel and Saudi Arabia in his approach to Iran.

Joe Biden has pledged to re-join the Iranian nuclear agreement, and end the horrendous Trump-era sanctions which have caused so much suffering among the Iranian people (all for political kudos back home). The latest developments have somewhat blown that off course, and Iran isn’t to blame.

The assassination of an Iranian scientist is, by any standards, an act of geopolitical aggression. As of right now it looks like Israel (likely consulting with the outgoing Trump administration) is poking the Iranian bear because Israeli’s foreign policy team are implacably opposed to America de-escalating with Iran or reviving the deal.

Saudi Arabia is united with Israel in disdain for Iran, and both nations are likely to pressure Iran to do something that jeopardises the plan (IE; responding in kind with provoked aggression), and to pressure Biden to keep Trump-era Iranian policy, policy which has been an implacable failure and caused immense misery and suffering, without improving a damn thing for anyone.

Biden says he is sticking to his promise but “it’ll be difficult”. We know what that means; it means the plan will be whittled away and Biden isn’t particularly hostile to the Trump approach in many ways.

Without pressure from the progressive half of the party, or anyone with humanitarian instincts that’s a Democrat, Biden could capitulate away without loss of any political capital and some brownie points from the demented GOP. It has to be more trouble than it’s worth to deviate from his stated position, and tensions with Iran must be deescalated and they must be offered sanctions relief.

This is where it becomes clear that foreign policy should have a much more prominent role in the Democratic primaries. It’s all well and good to focus on healthcare and domestic issues, but it comes from a place of immense privilege. The lives of thousands and livelihoods of millions internationally depend on a decent person with a decent ethos in the White House; something the White House likely has never had in terms of foreign affairs.

Biden is who Biden is, and if he isn’t pushed, he may swing left of Trump domestically, but further to the right on foreign policy than Trump was.