Has Trump now dented Republican chances in 2022?

The GOP looked set for a comeback in the 2022 congressional elections, now the outgoing POTUS may have put it all in jeopardy.

A matter of weeks ago things didn’t exactly look rosy for House and Senate Democrats. Even once they obtained Senate control, it was on a knife edge, and the GOP had made gains in the House, setting them up for a retake of one or both chambers come 2022. Now, President Trump may have dashed those hopes. Two factors are now working in Democrats favour come 2022, and they should make the DNC a good deal more optimistic than they were.

Firstly, the insurrection. Moderate-type Republican voters have been turned off from the brand in a way nothing had until now, and while the base is rock solid, around the edges voters are peeling off, signifying Trumpist politics (at least in its current form) has had its peak, and this will harm turnout and assembling a coalition come 2022. Not to mention, a split, and constant division within the party, can only aid their opponents.

Secondly, and crucially, Democrats have the Senate, giving them unified control of the US government, and a rare opportunity to get things done. If Democrats use these two years wisely and deliver for their voters, matching their promises and delivering tangible, clear benefits to people’s lives, combined with a strong vaccine rollout and pandemic response from the Biden administration, may propel Democrats to gains come 2022.

What happens come November 2022 completely hangs in the balance on what happens during the next two years, whether Democrats avoid the toxic pitfalls of compromise they fell into during 2009–2011, and whether Republicans can hold together as a unified oppositional bloc. However, in a way that wasn’t as much the case a month ago, nothing is off the table for 2022, and the battle begins right now.