If it’s No Deal, Keir Starmer will be Prime Minister.

Boris Johnson is away and above all, out for himself. Which begs the question, why would he pull the plug on a No Deal Brexit? The reason this may all be a bluff, is the simple fact that IF the govt’s predictions of No Deal (neoliberal models made by people hostile to Brexit in the first place, but unlikely to be a pack of lies in the case of WTO) are proven accurate, then Johnson is cooked.

By all accounts people inside the Tory parliamentary party and even the cabinet are shitting a brick at the thought of No Deal; because of the political damage that the ensuing economic pain and disruption will bring about.

We’re being lead by people with no plan beyond deregulatory free for all, and while under a genuine leftist government, the argument is there for a clean break with most market-based free trade deals, that doesn’t apply here, and under Johnson, a No Deal is a mandate for disaster capitalism unleashed; a direct betrayal of the higher standards Leave voters voted for, and could have been delivered under a Worker’s Brexit.

I’m quite prepared to say, in the event of No Deal, Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister. Save an act of God, or crazy underestimation and an odds defying pain-free No Deal (unlikely to the max) the reality of Johnsonian WTO will be felt between now and the next election, the chaos will ensue, and Starmer will be a shoe-in to form the next govt.

The nightmare of No Deal will be a hit to the Johnson govt (such as Black Friday for the Major govt) that the voters will inevitably hold the PM to account for, and will be a turning point in the govt’s political fortunes, Labour winning power in 2024 by default. The most likely scenario would be a Labour-led minority administration, but if this fulfils the most apocalyptic predictions (I remain sceptical) a previously inconceivable swing that brings about a majority Labour govt isn’t off the table.

It all begs that same question, why won’t Johnson get a measly deal at the very least? For the good of the country, and if not that, for the good of his premiership.

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Toby Lipatti-Mesme

Toby Lipatti-Mesme

Insightful and innovative UK journalism and commentary, from Toby Lipatti-Mesme.