Johnson would loose his majority.

A model conducted throughout December indicates the govt is in trouble.

A survey by Focaldata, using efficient polling techniques, shows us some interesting findings. If a general election was held right now, the Tories would win 284 seats (a horrendous loss of 81 seats, including all but 8 in the red wall), while Labour would win a staggering 82 seats, placing them on 282.

Labour would win 38%, to the Tories on 36%, with the Greens on 7% and the Lib Dems on 9%, with a meagre tall of 2 seats, while the SNP would sweep Scotland with 57 of the 59 seats. These results would put the country in prime position for a Labour-SNP government, and Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, with a stable majority of 20.

This is a stunning repudiation of Johnson, and shows decisively the public is unhappy with his handling of the pandemic. Simultaneously, it is an undeniable sign of huge shifts engineered by Keir Starmer, putting Labour in a previously uncertain degree of competitive stature for the next general election. Both Labour and the SNP will jump for joy, the Tories and the Liberals will panic.

The Green Party vote share of 7% indicates a deep discontent at Keir Starmer from the left, and if he can win back 4% or so from there, he’d be around 303 seats to the Tories on 256. Even if the Tories were to bring back disillusioned base voters plumping for the Brexit party under this survey, the tightening of the Liberal and Green vote to Labour during the course of the campaign makes this look like a repudiation of the Tories and springboard to the Labour govt, even in the worst case scenario. The only question remains what size majority would such a govt command in parliament with the aid of the SNP.

So many factors can shift, the next election is far off, and the Tories can win back support, perhaps under a new leader and with the feel good factor of an end to the pandemic and a successful home stretch, combined with targeted investment into key areas between now and 2024.

But, the disillusionment may only grow, and if it does, and this maintains, we’re looking at a Labour-SNP administration come 2024. Right now the likeliest outcome is still a Tory majority, with this is a rapidly gaining second. Hostility to the SNP in England has tempered upon seeing the and composed oratory leadership of Sturgeon in contrast to the car crash of the Johnson record. Therefore, much of the roadblocks to such a government, are lifting, among that and the fact moderate Liberal voters won’t be concerned by attack lines about putting Labour in No 10 as they were towards the end of Corbynism.



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Toby Lipatti-Mesme

Insightful and innovative UK journalism and commentary, from Toby Lipatti-Mesme.