Local elections, and a by-election.

May 6th 2021 is shaping up to be a big political test for a multitude of reasons.

Low and behold even more political drama. Yes! A byelection. It may be the preserve of the most nerdy of political enthusiasts but I couldn’t help but smile when I found out there was going to be such a contentious byelection in a Red Wall seat. And of course alongside that as every week goes by we get a clearer picture of how the local elections across the country are shaping up, and I have much more to say on that matter.

Let’s start by examining how things have shifted regards the local elections. Labour has now launched their campaign (bloody early, I know) and seem to be running a campaign against a Conservative party that hasn’t even got out the stable doors yet. From what I’ve seen, it’s the most boilerplate typical Labour campaign you can imagine, it’s literally “no to Tory cuts” ( no longer a big statement since every party seems to have abandoned austerity thanks to to work of the last Lab leader) and “the Tories are mean, we won’t be mean”.

Now we all know the Tories are cruel bastards, and pinning your campaign to a fair NHS staff pay rise on paper is an excellent strategy, drawing a very material and clear dividing line on a values basis, and one that most of the public would be in your corner on. But Labour’s critique is toothless, considering they barely back a 2% pay rise; the Tories at the stroke of a pen can give them a 3% pay rise and neutralise this (and they probably will). Labour should be committed to the demand of a 15% pay rise, but even if that’s too much, bare minimum should be 10% as a starting point (the public supports this, why for god’s sake can’t Labour!).

NHS staff will feel free to abandon Labour over this, as will much of their base in the public sector. NHS staff have seen their pay real terms cut again and again, 10% would only begin to repair the damage, and the Green party is offering a 15% pay rise and making all the arguments Labour should be making if it wants this to be a dividing line! It’s just awful politics, because how can Labour make a critique if they’d barely do any better? That being said, making electing councillors about this is ludicrous seen as they don’t make the decisions on this; that comes down to the government, even if Labour wins a majority on every council in the country.

The Labour campaign so far just feels uninspired and toothless. There’s a implicit acceptance of defeat, with the leader publicly whinging about a “vaccine bounce” on TV (no really), and nothing new or inspiring being said about the multitude of reasons Labour can, and does, do good in local government. Another opportunity for such a grassroots campaign has been forsaken for a cult-of-Starmer London HQ run effort by Labour’s central office. And good luck getting Labour foot soldiers out the way you’ve treated them since you became leader, Sir Keir.

The Tories haven’t launched their campaign yet, but I think it’s pretty evident what it’ll be; crowing about victory and the vaccine rollout, seasoned with a bit of culture war spice here and there. Back last year, Labour looked in prime position to ride of a wave of govt-protest votes, and make huge gains at the polls at the expense of both the Tories and the now flaccid Lib Dems. Now, that wave had dissipated with the help of the Opposition’s lack of leadership, and this could turn out to be a historically bad for opposition, historically good for incumbent, set of local elections. Remembering that under crushing New Labour majorities Tories still made gains at locals, that becomes very dire indeed.

The stars are aligning to make this a very good set of locals for the Tories: older voters overwhelmingly turn out at these kind of affairs, and older voters have overwhelmingly had their jabs. The psychological feel good effect from the relief after getting the vaccine is well documented, and that means the majority of those going to vote will be feeling very good about the government; which has made huge polling gains among the over 50s, after a slide during the chaos last year. That points to a conventions defying Tory victory.

Labour can hope to gain from the Lib Dems, and maybe even scrape it. But the fact we aren’t talking about big gains, and a Tory win is even on the table, indicates within the Labour party, serious questions among the left and the right flank will be being asked about whether after these disastrous few months, Keir Starmer is really the man to take Labour back to Downing Street.

Now, onto the byelection. Hartlepool is a Labour Leave seat that saw big gains at the expense of UKIP in the 2017 election under Corbyn (Leave + Economic Radicalism has electoral appeal guys) , and saw huge losses over Brexit in 2019 but eked out a win through the middle of a split Tory-Brexit Party vote. This election will be a huge test, since it’s exactly the kind of seat the 80 Tory majority was built on, and holding it will show Starmer’s Labour has appeal in the Red Wall.
This election will show us if the Brexit divide is over, or if the Red Wall is staying Tory. Reform UK is fringe right now, so the Brexit vote will either consolidate with the Tories, and hand them the seat, or Brexit Party 2019 voters will plump for Starmer’s Labour now the Brexit divide is done and dusted. Will the seat plump for economic interests, or culture wars? This result will tell us a hell of a lot about a hypothetical general election, because if 2019 Bxt voters prefer Labour now, Labour can make gains and “take back” the Red Wall, something I personally would be surprised to see happen at any great scale.

The only problem for what should be a no brainer win, is Labour have picked a hardcore Remainer with a history of rebelling for a People’s Vote, and cosying up to “progressive” Saudi Arabia. I couldn’t conceive of a worse fighting to send into the Red Wall, but it’ll tell us a lot about the effectiveness of Starmer’s foot shooting political strategy. Lots to look forward to on May 6th.