No Deal is a non-starter.
For a few short days, I bought into the myth that a No Deal exit was really on the table; now we have confirmation such talk, was, as I originally suspected earlier in the year, nonsense, and a red herring. My initial instincts were correct, and I got swept away by the hyperbole of the pundit class.
This is all being done to sell a concession as a victory; and it’s going to work. Make no mistake, this is going to be a Dog’s Brexit, but it WILL be a deal, albeit a measly gruel-like one. Johnson clearly made the same political calculation I made yesterday; No Deal would hurt him politically.
That’s why a deal remains a certainty; Johnson’s self interest, I overestimated his propensity to shoot himself in the foot for a brief moment, but in reality the career of Johnson is the priority for Johnson, and he wouldn’t endorse an outcome that would damage his premiership.
The incoming Brexit settlement will be a hard Brexit, and it’ll be uniquely unstable. Likely, we either rejoin the single market later down the line, or Ireland unifies. All things are on the table, not things I would support (save exceptional circumstances) but things such as Rejoin or Norway+ could be on the table within a decade, since the electorate is becoming more and more pro-EU as time goes on.
This isn’t the final chapter in the Brexit saga, but in 2021 we are having that very abrupt break with the neoliberal free-trading bloc we’ve been wedded to since the 1970s; it’s the end of an era, and the chance for the left to pitch and right for a new economic consensus, taking advantage of the break from EU institutions for progressive goals.