Politics in 2021.

Happy New Year! 2021 is all set to be a fascinating year in worldwide politics, with so many dynamics and battlegrounds up for play, and any number of conclusions we’ll have reached by December 2021. Let’s delve into what the year will hold for key political constituencies.

The GOP:

2021 isn’t going to be a good year for the Republican party. They’re going to be fresh off the heel of loosing the Presidency and failing to enact a coup, with a defeated ex-President hellbent on creating havoc. Trump will maintain, and fight for, his grip on the party, and cause chaos for Republican elected officials, prompting intra-party conflict that’ll only benefit their opponents.

Mitch McConnell will be the biggest player legislatively, reprising his role chief of obstruction (the success of which will depend on Senate control, but will stymie Democratic reform to a lesser or a greater extent either way), but Trump will loom large with the base and the populist heart of the party.

Prime Minister Johnson and the Tories:

Johnson will face another test he’s already set to fail: leader Britain through the lowest point of this pandemic. By all accounts, this’ll be yet another “too little too late” disaster, causing disruption and misery for millions, and unnecessary deaths for thousands upon thousands. By all accounts, this could be the year a fatigued and beaten down Johnson resigns, if so, we’ll see a revitalised Tory party, with a fresh faced Prime Minister Sunak.

The light at the end of the tunnel will be the vaccine rollout, and if Johnson pulls that off, the party he leads may have life in it yet, and may be able to redeem its 2024 prospects, and have a comfy showing in the 2021 elections. Brexit may cause delays, but any pain won’t be clear in the midst of the pandemic, and Johnson and his party will enjoy the political capital of having “Got Brexit Done”.

Joe Biden and the Democratic party:

This year will be the making of the Biden Presidency. In comparison with the Trump administration, regardless of what’s achieved legislatively, Biden’s style and competence will enamour him with the American public as he leads them through a dark winter, and into an economic recovery and beginning of the end of the nightmare. His ratings will likely skyrocket and we’ll see “rally around the flag” kick in, unless there are some truly dire pandemic failings to match the Trump administration.

Democrats will try to pass the £2trn stimulus package, and fight to own the economic recovery. Nancy Pelosi will try to nail in some wins on the way out, and Chuck Schumer will flail in opposition or come into his own pushing bold priorities as Majority Leader. There are relatively hopeful prospects of reforms being made with the Senate and a push for an inclusive recovery, if not, more stagnation and gridlock. Congressional Democrats have a good year lined up, but it’ll be fraught, and may be the breaking of their 2022 prospects. Confrontation and conflict between moderates and progressives will hit fever pitch in 2021.

Keir Starmer and Labour:

Starmer’s Prime Ministerial ambitions will in great part hinge on how he fares throughout 2021. He has a chance to prove his appeal in 2021, with decent prospects of mobilising discontent at pandemic mismanagement and turning it into a Labour mandate. He may be derailed if he doesn’t make peace with the left. He’ll set out his vision for the country, and attempt to show what a Starmer government would look like, what it would do.

Labour will either sink back into irrelevance, as the government rejuvenates, or find itself the beneficiary of the shitstorm of Tory incompetence. If they play their cards right, they’ll end 2021 with a healthy polling lead, a comfortable local elections win, and a solid chance of forming the next govt. If things don’t blow that way, things may rapidly deteriorate, with a financially bankrupt and divided party at war with itself, a locals meltdown, and a rejuvenated govt pulling ahead and certain to win in 2024.

Let’s get stuck into 2021, and watch it all unfold. To you are yours, I hope it’s better than 2020.

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