Presidential Election 2020, The Prediction
This has been a fraught and unsettling campaign. Set in the wasteland of COVID-19 America, with the impression of an empire in terminal decline, and two old septuagenarians squabbling over the ashes of what was once a world power.
This election will be defined by one thing, and one thing only. Above all else, it’s a verdict on President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Any measure of public opinion would tell you Americans strongly disapprove of their President’s handling of a global pandemic.
President Trump is what he is, and his party is what it is. Americans know what they’ll get from four more years of MAGA, and they aren’t willing to take that chance again. Trump’s dire unpopularity has toxified the Republican brand up and down the ticket. The base will remain, but the swing voters are gone. The result Republicans up and down the ballot receive will be of votes cast with their President in mind, they can’t distance themselves.
Joe Biden is a vastly more appealing candidate than Hillary Clinton; and the President can’t effectively make the case of “what have you got to loose” because Americans are dealing with his pandemic blunders right now. Biden has managed to present himself as a safe candidate, with broad appeal. He’s a reassuring alternative. Democrats up and down the ballot have the magic of being the alternative; and people really don’t have much to loose this time.
My analysis and official prediction would most likely be vastly different if the pandemic hadn’t happened and the economy (on the surface) had still been on a sugar high. However, here is my verdict on what we’ll see after November 3rd.
Joe Biden will win the Presidency, ousting President Trump, with a 6–10 point popular vote margin, and easily over 350 in electoral collage votes. The House will easily be retained by Democrats, and the Senate will flip. The fragility of this Democratic coalition will depend on the ensuing two years up to November 2022.